Demographic projections till 2025 for India

demogra.pdf (application/pdf Object)

We can be more certain of the changes in the age structure of the population. Under the realistic scenario, between 2000 and 2025, the percentage of population under 15 years of age is expected to fall from 36 to 27 percent. Actually, the population under 15 years is expected to increase only marginally from 360 to 371 million in 25 years. On the other hand, the adult population in the age group 15-64 is expected rise from 604 million in 2000 to 942 million in 2025. i.e., from 60 percent to 67 percent of the total population. The elderly population is also expected to rise sharply from 45 to 89 million, and their share in the total population would rise from 4.5 to 6.4 percent. As a consequence of these age structural changes, the age-dependency ratio (ratio of non-working age population to working age population) is expected to fall from 67 percent in 2000 to 46 percent in 2025.

It is beyond the scope of this paper to discuss the population prospectus on a state-by-state basis. But because they make telling contrasts, two broad regions- north and south - will be considered for detailed treatment. The ‘north’ in our discussions comprises of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Orissa, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and newly formed states of Uttaranchal, Jharkhand and Chhatisgarh. The ’south’ comprises of Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. During 1991-2001, the average population growth rate was 2.22 percent per annum in the north while it was only 1.24 percent in the south.

Cultural divide between North and South India like in the US - unlike the US, South of India is the economic engine driving growth.